#22 Tweet To Flow Model

Prices chop sideways. What do the Crypto Twitter experts have to say?

The Only Value Investing Crypto Newsletter | 100% hype free

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CHEAT SHEET

Red = Bearish, Green = Bullish, Brown = Neutral since the date given in “Bias Since”. Support levels are where the price could bounce when falling and Resistance levels are where the price could stop if rising. You can find more details on how to read the cheat sheet here.

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What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

Red = Bearish, Green = Bullish, Brown = Neutral since the date given in “Bias Since”. Support levels are where the price could bounce when falling and Resistance levels are where the price could stop if rising. You can find more details on how to read the cheat sheet here.

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TAKE ME TO (TWITTER) MAXI TOWN

@100trillionUSD gives us an update on his now famous Bitcoin Stock to Flow model. If you are unfamiliar with the model it looks at current circulating supply and compares that to newly added supply. We see the stepping up white line on the chart because Bitcoin’s supply distribution is programmed to be cut in half every 4 years. This model currently predicts $288,000 Bitcoin within the next 4 years.

PlanB @100trillionUSD

Both #bitcoin S2F (white line) and on-chain signal (color, not red yet) still indicating a 2nd leg of this bull market.

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Here is an interesting distribution from @glassnode. The red and green squiggly line shows how much Bitcoin is being sent to and from exchanges. @haal69k has observed that this is a lagging indicator. The price appears to correct before this indicator moves. It does not look useful for predicting price movement. However, that does not take away from the data being interesting as a general study of Bitcoin market dynamics.

glassnode @glassnode

#Bitcoin exchange flows have returned to a dominance of outflows through August as investors withdraw $BTC. The market has transitioned through a number of phases of exchange flow dominance over the last year, with outflow dominance last seen in late 2020.

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Again, here is another interesting bit of data, but we don’t think price needs to be overlaid on this chart. What’s the take away? More Bitcoin than ever is being moved off of exchanges. It is incorrect to draw the conclusion that this must mean this Bitcoin is not going to be sold. It’s actually relatively easy to move Bitcoin back to an exchange and sell it. Even a large holder with a complex custody solution could easily move their coins back to an exchange. These coins could also still be traded OTC or traded in decentralized exchanges.

Will Clemente @WClementeIII

Exchanges down 111,033 BTC in the last 30 days. One of the sharpest drops of exchange inventories in Bitcoin's history.

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Back to the price action. This is a cool indicator. The chart on the left shows the breakdown of the candles on the right. It shows you the amount of buying and selling within the candle. In this example a large number of buyers came in and bought the top of a wick. The price then slowly fell as they were the last buyers in the market at the time.

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

I'm in awe of @SpacemanBTC's indicators. If you've used pine before you just gotta appreciate the work put into this. Seems to work pretty well too. Here's an example of aggressive buyers running into passive resistance and they end up getting squeezed.

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We are calling Bullshit here. No way this percentage of people ACTUALLY measure their portfolio’s success or failures in BTC. It can be nice to see how much a portfolio is worth in BTC, but at the end of the day USD is needed to pay taxes, buy food, clothes and shelter. We do believe that @bitcoinpanda69 uses Clout as his unit of account.

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