Between A Rate Hike And A Hard Place
Bitcoin limps forward after another 0.75 bps rate hike from the federal reserve
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
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Well the FOMC happened and there was some confusion in the markets. Before the actual meeting some notes came out that sounded rather dovish and then as Jerome Powell spoke the stock market and crypto started to go down. The fact is if you look at this chart above its really hard to point of CPI prints and FOMC meetings because they didn’t create a technically outstanding pattern on the chart. In fact lets take the FOMC meeting away and the CPI print and the same exact story we’ve been talking about is still true. Bitcoin is stuck between the 20 week moving average and the 20 day moving average.
Over the past eight days Bitcoin has made five attempts to move above its 20 week moving average. Well the bears were happy to use this as a point to load up more sell orders and the bulls were no match. Sure, you can say that this is because of 0.75 bps rate hike, inflation or whatever, but the point stands that buyers were absent at $20800 and there were still plenty of people happy to sell at these levels.
It’s hard to imagine Bitcoin doesn’t take one more trip to its 20 day moving average if the bottom of this bear market is in fact already in, and if it’s not then obviously the price must go back up the 20 day MA. However, as of this morning the selling has halted at the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level and as we’ve pointed out 0.5-0.618 fibs have historically been a great place to buy retracements for BTC.
Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC can in fact create a higher low and stay above $20k.
Possible Course of Action
Potential support at $20k, $19800 and $19500
Short if price moves below 20 day MA
Stay long while price is above 20 day MA
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above 20k
Price above 20 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Hawkish fed caused stock market sell off
Price rejected 5 times at 20 week MA
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal reviews sour rice moistened with rice vinegar.
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