Compression Continues

Crypto trades sideways while tech rallies on cooling CPI number

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• A 20-year-old Argentinian behind the $200m Euler hack says he’s now in a Paris jail (DLNews)

• Kim Dotcom’s crypto startup goes into liquidation before it’s even launched (Protos)

• Telegram Now Let’s Users Pay Merchants in Bitcoin—Here’s How it Works (Decrypt)

• DeFi Startup Ondo Expands Yield-Earning Stablecoin Alternative to Polygon (Decrypt)

• SEC sues Celsius, former CEO for market manipulation, securities fraud (Blockworks)

• Off The Chain Capital seeing dollar signs in Mt. Gox payout (Blockworks)

• Exec shares process of setting up a business in Switzerland with Bitcoin (CoinTelegraph)

• USB keystroke injectors still a threat to crypto users (CoinTelegraph)

• Coinbase Lawyers Argue Biden Student Loans Ruling Aids Defense Against SEC (CoinDesk)

• More Tokenized Treasurys Arrive on Polygon as Digital Bond Market Expands (CoinDesk)

• Figment partners with Nexus Mutual to enhance Ethereum slashing cover (The Block)

• Binance names new general counsel amid heightened regulatory scrutiny (The Block)

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BTC Outlook

BTC continues to trade in a tightening volatility range. A simple way to treat this compression is to remain mostly flat and be ready to jump in on a breakout or breakdown. BTC has consistently returned to the 50 day MA and near the 200 day MA each time it loses support this year. This means if a daily candle closes below $30k it’s possible opening a short and following the momentum will give a positive return. Also, it’s clear what the optionality of cash gives here waiting for the inevitable retests of key moving averages. One more way to treat it is to wait for a breakout above $31k and get in expecting momentum to carry the price to $32k+.

It is interesting that BTC almost completely ignored the CPI numbers that tech stocks reacted to as favorable. It’s possible BTC is simply forgotten about as investors chase high beta AI stocks that appear to be in a frenzy. In “A Closer Look” section today we will discuss how crypto equities are responding in comparison to BTC.

Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.

Possible Course of Action

• If long stay long while price is above 50 day MA

• Short if price closes below $30k

• Do nothing waiting for price to rise above $31000 or retest 50 day MA to get long

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price above 50 day MA, 200 day , $30k

• Potential BTC ETF approval

• CPI numbers beat expectations (inflation coming down)

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Resistance near 2023 local top ($31000)

• Regulator uncertainty

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal will discuss popular crypto equities relative performance to BTC.