The Halving Year
The Halving Year
Happy New Year; It's a Bitcoin Halving Year
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Crypto wallet founder loses $125,000 to fake LFG token phishing attack (The Block)
Coinbase, MicroStrategy shares surge in pre-market trading amid bitcoin breakout (The Block)
Bitcoin ETF launch may be a ‘let down’ but could attract trillions over time (CoinTelegraph)
Countdown to US spot ETF: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week (CoinTelegraph)
Polymarket Traders See 89% Chance of SEC Approving Spot BTC ETF by Jan. 15 (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin Bullish Bets Costlier Than Ever as Funding Rates Hit Record 66% (CoinDesk)
The charts that defined crypto in 2023 (Blockworks)
$80 million lost in first hack of 2024 (Blockworks)
Crypto Crystal Ball 2024: When Will Regulatory Clarity Come to the US?(Decrypt)
What happened with Bitcoin in 2023 (Protos)
DeFi developments to watch for in 2024 (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
It’s a new year which means another Bitcoin yearly candle has closed. Last year Bitcoin’s price never went below the yearly open and nearly tripled in price over the course of 2023. Only two days into 2024 and Bitcoin’s price has risen 5% already off the yearly open leaving no wick. One thing to notice is that the current BTC price (about $45k) is around the same level as the 2021 yearly close and 2022 yearly open.
Bitcoin’s price has spent little time above the $45k level (only the wick in 2021). This could indicate that there is little resistance between $45k and the all time high if Bitcoin can break above the current supply zone. It’s important to remember that 2024 is a Bitcoin Halving year where the mining reward is cut in half reducing the amount of new supply the market must absorb.
Looking at the price pattern from 2017 - 2021 if a similar pattern repeats one would expect the 2024 yearly candle to surpass the 2021 all time high sometime before the end of the year. Both the halving and potential spot ETF approvals could be catalysts for a bullish year from Bitcoin.
It is certainly still possible that outside events cause the Bitcoin price to fall below the previous years close just like in 2020 when a global liquidity crisis caused Bitcoin’s price to fall over 50% in just one week. This however ended up being an exceptional buying opportunity.
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Possible Course of Action
Stay Long here while price remains above yearly open
Short if price falls below 200 day MA
DCA into spot long over Q1 in anticipation of Halving (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision likely to happen in the first two weeks of January
Bitcoin Miner reward halving 2024 summer
The Bears’ Prosecution:
High funding rates on futures
ETF is priced in
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