Foot Guns

Share this post

It's CPI Day! (again...)

www.cryptofootguns.com

Discover more from Foot Guns

The best DeFi & TradFi daily newsletter from experienced technical traders - managing a DAO treasury. Join 10,000+ traders and never shoot yourself in the foot again.
Over 8,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

It's CPI Day! (again...)

US CPI +6.4% YOY (est +6.2%)

Feb 14, 2023
4
Share this post

It's CPI Day! (again...)

www.cryptofootguns.com
Share

Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

02/14/23 8:50 AM ET

Are you new to Foot Guns? Learn how to read the cheat sheet here.

What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

02/14/23 8:50 AM ET

Crypto News

  • NFT marketplace Blur set to raise at billion dollar valuation (The Block)

  • Court approves sale of certain FTX investments, tokens and equity shares (The Block)

  • Investors Rush to Tether as Paxos' BUSD Faces Regulatory Heat, Curve Liquidity Pools Show (CoinDesk)

  • UK Financial Regulator Takes Enforcement Action Against Crypto ATM Operators (CoinDesk)

  • Magic Eden Cuts 15% of Staff, Takes ‘Hard Look’ at Restructuring (Blockworks)

  • BUSD Is Under Attack. Are USDC and USDT Next? (Blockworks)

  • Judge Halts SEC, CFTC Cases Against Bankman-Fried Until Criminal Trial Concludes (Decrypt)

  • New ‘Sinbad’ Bitcoin Mixer Unmasked As Formerly Sanctioned Blender (Decrypt)

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo NFT Sells for Record-Breaking $187K on Sorare NBA (Decrypt)


Cowswap, gas less swapping, MeV protection and better prices.

BTC Outlook

BTC , 15min candles just after CPI anncouncement

We are trying a slightly different format today because of the volatility that comes with CPI days. As you can see above BTC’s price fluctuated around 1.5% within the 15 minutes of the CPI data being release. This was a confusing CPI release because there are YoY effects but also the formula for how CPI is calculated was changed. Lass year the CPI was backward looking two years and in 2023 has been changed to only consider 2021.

- 2022 CPI = 2019+2020 consumption
- 2023 CPI = ONLY 2021 consumption

With the new formula the expectation was that YoY CPI would come in at 6.2% and the actual number came in at 6.4%. This was an expectation miss and so far the market is mostly responding with volatility, though one could argue slightly to the downside so far.

The initial reaction to the CPI data has been relatively small volatility compared to BTC’s volatility since the beginning of January. In fact you can see that the last 3 days have seen nearly sideways price action with squeezing volatility. Generally a volatility squeeze results in a big move in either direction. What are the supports and resistances to look out for?

  • BTC is currently trading just above the FTX local top at $21500. This price level is currently acting as the most significant support.

  • Under $21500 is $20400 the local low during the mid January consolidation. Under that would be all the way down to $17500 (the neckline of the Jan breakout)

  • If BTC can find a rally to the upside here, the first resistance is likely to be $23000 where the price broke down last week.

Join us in discord where we actively discuss markets and where Bitcoin could be headed next.

Possible Course of Action

  • Spectate and wait for a break below current support or a move above $22k

  • Short now because of CPI miss expecting a move to $20,500

  • Long $20,500 if it holds as support

  • Get long if BTC can rise back above $23000 and hold it as support (short $23k if it acts as resistance)

The Bulls’ Defense:

  • Currently holding FTX local top as support

The Bears’ Prosecution:

  • CPI miss, could cause US equities to sell off


Across is the fastest, cheapest and most secure bridge between L1 and L2s. Try it now

Want more from Foot Guns? Join our Discord where we have live conversations about the market.

4
Share this post

It's CPI Day! (again...)

www.cryptofootguns.com
Share
Comments
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Foot Guns
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing