The Whipsaw

Bitcoin's intraday volatility leads to sideways chop

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

02/28/23 9:09 AM ET

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What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

02/28/23 9:09 AM ET

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Crypto News

• Wholesale digital pound is a question of how, not when, says Bank of England (The Block)

• Jane Street wallet may have been linked to UST depeg, Wintermute researcher says (The Block)

• Shiba Inu Investor Transfers Tokens to Exchanges, Possibly Foreshadowing Price Drop (CoinDesk)

• Coinbase to Suspend Binance USD Stablecoin, Saying It Doesn’t Meet Listing Standards (CoinDesk)

• UAE emirate to launch free zone for digital and virtual asset firms (CoinTelegraph)

• Ethereum Steps Towards Staking Withdrawals With Successful Testnet Upgrade (Blockworks)

• Yuga Labs Debuts First NFT Collection on Bitcoin (Blockworks)

• TeraWulf’s Nuclear Bitcoin Plant Is Just One Piece of the Green Mining Puzzle (Decrypt)

• Robinhood Faces SEC Investigation Over Crypto Business (Decrypt)

• New Congress body to hold first-ever hearing on regulatory ‘attack’ on crypto (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

After all the whipsawing for the last month Bitcoin’s price has ended up back where it was over a month ago (jan 21st), and in fact that last few days have been a continued squeeze in volatility. Generally, after a period of squeezing volatility a big move follows in either direction. For now Bitcoin is in no trading land. The price could move either way, basically a coin flip.

There is still support coming from the 50 day moving average, which BTC has stayed above since the breakout in early January. As long as the price remains above the 50 day the price is technically in a bullish state. However, since BTC has yet to retest the 50 day MA we have not seen the real appetite from the bulls to continue this rally.

The 200 day moving average is still far down near $19743. A move down to the 200 day would be nearly a 15% decline in price from these levels. The price could move down to retest those levels and still remain in a bullish consolidation pattern.

Another place BTC is likely to find support is around $21500 (-8.8% below curren price). This is the FTX local top created last November.

There are no new macro coming out until mid-march so Bitcoin is likely to continue the whipsaw and trade between these supports ant the recent resistance found just above $25k.

We will be paying close attention to these key support and resistance levels this week. Join us in discord where we actively discuss markets and where Bitcoin could be headed next.

Possible Course of Action

• Do nothing wait for Bitcoin to rise above $25.3k and hold it as support before buying

• Short expecting a retest of $22-$21.5k, or $19.5k

• Do nothing and wait for $21.5k or $19.5k to hold as support

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price still above the 50 day MA

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Double top at $25.3k

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal gives an update on the NASDAQ 100. Following up on last weeks commentary.