FG Cheat Sheet 031522
FG Cheat Sheet 031522
Crab: move sideways or obliquely.
Don’t miss last weeks podcast. Hal, Boomer discuss what’s going on with oil, commodities and how it may impact Crypto.
CHEAT SHEET
The price has been moving around so much it seems to be creating noise in the daily bias on the cheat sheet. We flipped bearish the day before the price ran up, and now flipping bullish on a huge down move. It could be wise to trade less here and focus on the weekly and monthly time frames. Alternatively, if you are paying close attention join us in our Discord where we are more closely following the price action.
What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Are you buying these tokens? Did you read our guide on how to buy them on Sushiswap and Uniswap? Got questions? Leave them in the comments.
Crypto News
Do Kwon (Founder of Terra) bets $11M on LUNA’s price increasing (Twitter)
Proposal Limiting Proof-of-Work Is Rejected in EU Parliament Committee Vote (CoinDesk)
Stellar Development Foundation Launches $30M Investment Fund (CoinDesk)
FTX Europe Becomes First Exchange to Receive Crypto License in Dubai (CoinDesk)
Deus Finance exploit: Hackers get away with $3M worth of DAI and Ether (CoinTelegraph)
UK financial watchdog seeks crypto talent amid new crackdown (CoinTelegraph)
Crypto.Com Announces ‘Initial Phase’ of US Launch (Decrypt)
Former Walt Disney CEO Bob Iger Backs Metaverse Startup (Decrypt)
Illinois Moves Closer To Accepting Crypto for Taxes, but Not Considering Legal Tender Status (Blockworks)
Stripe Jumps Back Into Crypto, Providing New Payment Options for Consumers and Companies (Blockworks)
BTC Outlook
Since late February Bitcoin has been in a tightening price band. $37-$39k has been a favorite level for buyers in March and sellers have been coming in quickly at $40-$42k. How this situation resolves will rely heavily on the distribution of spot/derivatives buyers. If the sellers are truly spot and buyers are using leveraged products one would expect a breakdown to retest $33k and if the opposite scenario is true and all the selling since late February has been short sellers while spot buyers are coming in near $38k then you'd expect the shorts to cover and the price to break up to $43k. Either way it seems like the way to play this is to not take on too large of a position and wait for the direction to be defined. So, whether you short here or long here we’d recommend keeping a good ratio of cash. Of course, if you have a strong bias toward which way the scenario just described will play out then bet a bit bigger that direction.
Sentiment wise 90% of crypto twitter is bearish, and just remember 90% of them were bullish at the top. Hal is cautiously long BTC since $33k, Boomer picked some up around the current levels.
Possible Course of Action (advice from last week still holds)
Caution (cash)
Buy dips with small size
The Bulls’ Defense:
Higher Low is a show of support
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Failure to break $42.5k shows a sign of weakness
ETH Outlook
ETH failed to reenter the body of this symmetric triangle and ever since then it’s like the market forgot it exists. This is good news for HODLrs of ETH as it is not selling off. With its volatile history the current tightening price band is strange for ETH. My feeling is ETH participants are simply watching BTC and waiting for it to make a decision. The great news is gas prices have dropped amidst the down turn and the network is much more useable at the moment. The NFT crowd has also appeared to have dwindled and this is the major cause for cheaper gas prices on Ethereum.
Possible Course of Action
Cautious dip buying
(Buy LUNA, lol)
Fade rallies with small shorts
The Bulls’ Defense:
EIP-1559 has burned $4,996,398,797 (1,978,787 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Price rejected on bottom side of Symmetric triangle
Alternative chains like LUNA continue to capture market share
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