They Meet Again

The market braces for the fed's interest rate change announcement

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

03/21/23 8:29 AM ET

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What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

03/21/23 8:29 AM ET

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Crypto News

• Circle applies for French crypto license as stablecoin issuer expands in Europe(The Block)

• Over $1 billion of ether has been lost forever due to bugs and human error (The Block)

• Fed Preview: Powell Likely to Raise Rates by 25 bps Against Crypto Market's Hope for Status Quo(CoinDesk)

• Crypto Users Bridge Millions to zkSync Blockchain in Hopes of Token Airdrop (CoinDesk)

• SVB contagion: Australia reportedly asks banks to report on crypto (CoinTelegraph)

• OKX latest proof of reserves reveals $8.9B in assets(CoinTelegraph)

• MicroStrategy Nearly Even on Bitcoin Buys After Latest Rally (Blockworks)

• Crypto Enthusiasts Rush to Promote Bitcoin's 'Safe Haven' Status Amid Banking Crisis(Decrypt)

• Zodia Custody CEO on leaving Bitstamp, expansion plans, and what clients ask during a crypto winter (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

We will refrain from objective journalism for a moment to say, this price action is bullish.

Let’s check in where we are at:

• 200 day Moving average is at $19981

• 50 day Moving average is at $23524

• The May 12 low has been reclaimed after nearly 1 year of consolidation

If you haven’t been on Twitter for the last week the Bitcoin moon boys are back and there are several well known accounts calling for $1million BTC in 90 days... There logic is the recent bank failures will act as a catalyst to push more individuals into BTC. Prices move when there is a sense of urgency so people buy in an impatient way. This combined with reduced access to liquidity due to recent bank failures could cause some major volatility in the BTC price in the coming weeks.

From a technical perspective the trading range has widened to be between the Jan 2022 lows and the May 12 low that has been a pivotal level in the past year. This is basically between $25k and $32k.

Trading this one is simple, the trend is your friend. Current trend is a move towards $32k, but of course anything could happen.

The fed meeting is happening today and their decision should be published tomorrow afternoon. Many vocal market participants are uncertain where this rate decision will land. As usual expect high intraday volatility tomorrow in anticipation of the decision.

Join us in discord where we actively discuss markets and where Bitcoin could be headed next.

Possible Course of Action

• Stay long expecting a rise to $32k

• Short near $30-32k expecting retest of mid $20ks

• Do nothing and wait for Fed rate decision tomorrow

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price above the 200 day MA & 50 day MA

• Bank mismanagement and government relief is fundamental to Bitcoin bull case

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Fed decision could reverse rally

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal checks in on NQ and ETH/BTC.