The Bulls Are On Vacation
The Bitcoin Miami Conference kicks off with a -5% drop in BTC price
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BTC Outlook
Well, our insight into the Bitcoin Conference from Tuesday came true. Many are blaming the Federal Reserve’s actions for the sell yesterday off, but we are blaming conference goers need to pay their uber and lyft drivers in Miami.
From Tuesday’s Foot Gun’s Newsletter:
Keep a close eye on the price because the Miami Bitcoin Conference is starting this week and historically these conferences have been correlated with bearish price action. Who knows though, last year the conference started when everyone was raging bullish and this year it’s starting when everyone is depressingly bearish.
Ignoring the conference, BTC appears to now be in a falling wedge, which is technically bullish. However, BTC could consolidate within this wedge for the rest of April and even retest sub-40k without breaking this structure. A breakout to the upside of the wedge should see $48k retested.
Possible Course of Action
Do nothing wait to buy breakdowns of this wedge
Pick up longs on the bottom side looking for a retest of the top of the wedge
Short the top of the wedge pattern
The Bulls’ Defense:
Falling wedge
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Price could continue to decline on the bottom side of this wedge
ETH Outlook
Proceed with caution here. This is clearly a dead cat bounce. There is a lot more proving ETH needs to do in order to be confident that the selling is over for now. The Fibonacci golden pocket for the retracement of this sell off puts the price back above $3300. We’d expect that if the bounce makes it that far there would be consolidation and maybe a retest of yesterday’s low price eventually. Of course, the price could never make it that far and this could be the extent of the bounce.
Possible Course of Action
Long dips here expecting a retest of $3300
Do nothing, wait for dead cat bounce to play out
Short near $3300 expecting a retest of yesterday’s low
The Bulls’ Defense:
EIP-1559 has burned $6,781,409,545 (2,085,703 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.
Falling down trend from yesterday broken
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Dead Cat Bounce
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