Will He Dump His Coins?

Bitcoin continues to consolidate near Saylor's breakeven price

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

04/18/23 11:20 AM ET

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What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

04/18/23 11:20 AM ET

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Crypto News

• Coinbase Could Move Away From U.S. if No Regulatory Clarity: CEO Brian Armstrong (CoinDesk)

• 'Pepe the Frog' Meme Coins Rocket as Crypto Twitter Moves Over Dogecoin Obsession (CoinDesk)

• Gary Gensler's four-year-old Algorand remarks draw crypto Twitter's ire after SEC suit (The Block)

• Starbucks brews a new NFT collection on Polygon (The Block)

• BTC price quotes now live on Twitter following eToro partnership (CoinTelegraph)

• Privacy, scaling drives use cases for zero-knowledge technology (CoinTelegraph)

• How Does Apple Card’s New Savings Account Compare to Crypto? (Blockworks)

• UK Could See Live Crypto Regulation Within 12 Months (Blockworks)

• Lack of Crypto Compliance Is SEC's Fault, Say Republican Lawmakers (Decrypt)

• Waves founder Ivanov threatens investors burned in $530m DeFi debacle — ‘I’ll find you if I want to’ (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

Bitcoin continues to hover around MicroStrategy’s breakeven price on their Bitcoin purchases. This including the psychological barrier of $30,000 is an important test for the demand of buyers in this recent rally. While, $30k has broken a few times the Saylor entry at $29.8k has was defended over the last two days of trading. Because of the markets obsession with big round numbers we are expecting further consolidation at these levels before either retesting a key moving average like the 50 day or 200 day, or a move up to retest the January 2022 low.

The risk-reward in the current situation is not favorable if you believe Bitcoin could retest the 200 day moving average before moving up to $33k. That’s risking a 30% draw-down for slightly less than a 10% gain. It is for this reason that “smart money” will be waiting for a significant pull back before adding to this rally. However, if there is genuine demand for the token coming from new participants than the price could meet no resistance at the Jan 2022 low and head back up to the CME gap near $38k.

The US equity markets have not present a clear direction for Bitcoin to follow either after the CPI data came in last week slightly better than expectations. More consolidation and somewhat sideways movement could be the case for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Join us in discord where we actively discuss markets and where Bitcoin could be headed next.

Possible Course of Action

• Short near $33k expecting retest of $29.8k or even 50,200 day MA

• Wait for a retest of 50/200 day MA to get long

• Do nothing and wait for further consolidation

• Take profits if long from far below

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price above the 200 day MA & 50 day MA, Saylor level ($29.8k)

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Large down side to significant support versus expected resistances being near by

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal looks at ETH’s performance since the Shanghai/Shapella upgrade last week.