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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

Crypto News

• Coinbase Enters Fortune 500 List of Biggest US Companies (Coindesk)

• At Davos, Crypto Is No Longer on the Outside (Coindesk)

• Russia's updated crypto mining bill cuts tax amnesty for Bitcoin miners (Cointelegraph)

• Central African Republic to launch official crypto hub ‘Sango’ (Cointelegraph)

• Milady Maker Twitter Storm and GameStop’s Ethereum Wallet (Blockworks)

• Over 280 million LUNA have been sent to an address which permanently removes it from circulation, a process also known as burning (Blockworks)

• FTX Reportedly Seeks Acquisitions in Brokerage Space (Blockworks)

• South Korean Crypto Exchanges to Face Closer Supervision Following Terra Collapse (Decrypt)

• Crypto Could Use More Centralization: DraftKings CEO (Decrypt)

BTC Outlook

This current price action on Bitcoin looks similar to an inverse Bart Simpson. We’ve talked about these a lot, though mostly they were Barts and not inverse Barts. Basically, just an upside-down Bart. Just as a Bart forms when a Bull flag extends, and inverse Bart occurs when a Bear flag extends and never plays out. The pattern starts with a huge sell off followed by an elongated period of reduced volatility.  Eventually after some unknown period of time the price retraces quickly back to the start of the selling. In this case this also corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement of 0.5-0.618.

Notice that it is still possible for this to be a bear flag and retest $26k levels. We will continue to monitor this particular pattern until it breaks out either direction.

Possible Course of Action

• Long under $30k expecting to fill the CME gap at $36k

• Do nothing and wait for further consolidation

• Short any weakness looking for short term trades

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Inverse Bart

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Global macro uncertainty

• Still trading under $30k

• Potential Bear Flag

ETH Outlook

The shape of the ETH/BTC pair actually matches the BTC/USD rather closely. A rapid sell off resulted in low volatility consolidation. This is now forming a bear flag or as we pointed out with BTC an extension of this flag is likely to result in an inverse Bart. This would be consistent with our prediction that ETH is overacting to whichever direction BTC decides to go. The ETH merged planned for this summer has mixed opinions on how the price will be impacted.

We will continue to monitor the ETH/BTC pair for clues.

Possible Course of Action

• Caution here as ETH is highly correlated with the tech stock sell off

• Wait for further consolidation and confirmation of a higher low

• If you want to be long BTC, you can be long ETH for more beta

The Bulls’ Defense:

• EIP-1559 has burned $4,662,467,042 (2,347,856 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.

• Inverse Bart

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Global macro uncertainty

• Nasdaq correlation and sell off

• Potential Bullflag

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