Foot Guns

Share this post
The Lone Ranger
www.cryptofootguns.com

The Lone Ranger

After a failed breakout Bitcoin continues to range

Jul 12
2
Share this post
The Lone Ranger
www.cryptofootguns.com

Want more from Foot Guns? Subscribe to become a premium member and get more podcasts, more updates and access to our private channels in discord were we actively discuss trade ideas.

Upgrade To Premium


Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GOLD, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

New here? Learn how to read the cheat sheet here.

What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching


Crypto News

  • 3AC's Zhu Su breaks silence, accuses liquidators of 'baiting' (The Block)

  • Magic Eden launches venture unit to invest in web3 gaming startups (The Block)

  • Uniswap liquidity provider hacked for $8 million in phishing attack (The Block)

  • Gnosis Safe Rebrands as Safe, Raises $100M (CoinDesk)

  • GameStop’s NFT Marketplace Goes Live (CoinDesk)

  • U.S. trademark and copyright offices to study IP impact of NFTs (CoinTelegraph)

  • Korean fintech plans to create 10k Web3 jobs amid bear market (CoinTelegraph)

  • Swiss Post's banking arm developing crypto custody platform (CoinTelegraph)

  • Shanghai Allocates $1.5B to Metaverse Development Fund (Blockworks)

  • Crypto Increasingly Used To Pay Salaries in Developing Economies (Blockworks)

  • Lido Token Jumps 24% as Staked Ethereum Slowly Repegs (Decrypt)


Across is the fastest, cheapest and most secure bridge between L1 and L2s. Try it now.

BTC Outlook

200 day moving average (green), 50 day moving average (blue)

BTC fell below $20k last night shortly after CZ, the CEO of Binance, tweeted that their risk team had noticed an exploit occuring on UniV3. If you are unfamiliar with UniV3, it is a protocol that allows user to provide liquidity for crypto pairs to be swapped, e.g. Bitcoin/ETH. It was quickly determined that there was not an exploit but the funds were stolen through a phishing attack by airdropping a token to Liquidity Providers that was a poison pill. The news temporarily shocked the markets because if the exploit had been true that means millions of dollars worth of liquidity could have been vulnerable and with liquidity removed prices swing faster.

However, Bitcoin was unable to make a new low and this morning has risen back to $19900. You could take this as a sign of trend exhaustion because this bad news was unable to be the catalyst for a new low. This is similar to when Bitcoin was in the height of the bull market and good news was unable to push it to new highs. Of course, anything can happen and with the state of global markets, uncertainty alone may be enough to push the price lower in the coming months.

For now, Bitcoin is back to trading in the range we’ve pointed out between $21k and $19k. Until it rises above and holds $21k as support or falls below $19k and meets it as resistance then BTC will keep ranging sideways. Last weeks breakout failed to find support and now we are back to sitting and waiting to see what happens.

Please join us in our discord where we discuss active and potential trades.

Possible Course of Action

  • Long spot here with multi-year timeline

  • Do nothing and wait for breakout or breakdown

  • Trade the range: short near $20k, long $19k

The Bulls’ Defense:

  • Holding $19,000 as support (big round number)

The Bears’ Prosecution:

  • Global macro uncertainty

  • Tech stock correlation

Earn Interest on your Bitcoin

ETH Outlook

 Not much has changed with ETH since our post on June 30th : ETH Outlook.

The ETH/BTC ratio is currently swinging back down toward the bottom of this wedge. Note that this volatility squeeze on the pair could continue into early August. Just like with BTC watch for breakouts or breakdowns with confirmation by either the top holding as support or the bottom acting as resistance. Until then expect this range to slowly squeeze tighter through the second half of July.

Possible Course of Action

  • Caution here as ETH is highly correlated with the tech stock sell off

  • Wait for BTC to rise above 50-day MA before long ETH

  • Long if price breaks above the top of this wedge and holds as support

  • Short if price breaks below the wedge and meets it as resistance

The Bulls’ Defense:

  • EIP-1559 has burned $2,707,302,245 (2,529,787 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.

  • ETH 2.0 launch

The Bears’ Prosecution:

  • EIP-1559 ETH burn has slowed down due to low network usage

  • Global macro uncertainty

  • Nasdaq correlation and sell off

  • ETH/BTC pair continues to be weak


Want more from Foot Guns? Subscribe to become a premium member and get more podcasts, more updates and access to our private channels in discord were we actively discuss trade ideas.

Upgrade To Premium

Share this post
The Lone Ranger
www.cryptofootguns.com
Comments

Create your profile

0 subscriptions will be displayed on your profile (edit)

Skip for now

Only paid subscribers can comment on this post

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in

Check your email

For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.

Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.

TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2022 Foot Guns
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Publish on Substack Get the app
Substack is the home for great writing