The Fall
Bitcoin retraces to the fifty day moving average
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Australia must speed up crypto regulation efforts to stay relevant, Coinbase exec says (The Block)
Web3 can transform the internet, says Japan's PM Fumio Kishida: CoinPost (The Block)
What criminal charges for Celsius ex-CEO mean for crypto industry (CoinTelegraph)
Gaming DAO warns users of fake airdrops amid social media hacks (CoinTelegraph)
Inside the Orb: The Untold Story of Worldcoin’s Launch (CoinDesk)
UK Information Commission to Make Inquiries About Worldcoin (CoinDesk)
This startup is putting a DeFi spin on asset management (Blockworks)
SEC postures to appeal Ripple ‘secondary markets’ ruling (Blockworks)
DeFi Project Atlendis Lands $1M Loan From French National Bank BPI (Decrypt)
Binance, CEO Zhao to seek dismissal of US watchdog’s complaint (Aljazeera)
Bitcoiners introduce Frostsnap, a novel multisig ‘centipede’ wallet (Protos)
Ripple Europe chief Sendi Young on beating the SEC, expansion plans, and upending SWIFT (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
After spending thirty three days consolidating above MicroStrategy’s average entry price BTC has lost support. Not surprisingly, the price rapidly fell to the 50 day moving average (blue line above). This is a level we’ve been focused on since early January when Bitcoin’s price started rising. While the 50 day moving average is important for tracking bullish momentum, the ultimate level to hold is the 200 day moving average (orange line above). By many people’s measure the bull run ends when the 200 day MA is lost.
At the current price, a move to the 200 day MA would be a -9% decrease in price. A move back to the 2023 high would also be similar, +9%. With the expectations being similar, staying flat in cash is probably the best bet if you aren’t already in a trade. It’s likely many investors have their stop losses placed below the 50 day MA and maybe even below the 200 day. This means continued momentum to the downside can push into these areas and hit peoples stops creating a lot of sell pressure.
We will be watching the 200 day MA closely in the coming month. If the bullish momentum is going to continue into the second half of the year one would expect a violent reaction near the 200 day MA. If the price reaches that level and doesn’t find new buyers then the second half of the year could see continued selling and maybe even a retest of the 2022 lows.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
If long from early Q1 consider taking profit
If short from above $30k, stay short while price is below $30k. Consider the 200 day MA for taking profit.
Do nothing waiting for price to rise above $30000 or retest 200 day MA to get long
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price finding short term support at 50 day MA
Price above 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
$30,000 failed to act as support
Possible fed hikes
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal reviews BTC’s relative performance to COIN.
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