The Bulls Went Home
Bitcoin falls below the fifty day moving average
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Justin Sun buys $2.9 million of CRV from Michael Egorov and partners with Curve (The Block)
Curve founder Michael Egorov sells more CRV to DCFGod and others (The Block)
Ethereum is about to get crushed by liquid staking tokens (CoinTelegraph)
Bitcoin volume hits lowest since early 2021 amid fear $25K may return (CoinTelegraph)
U.S. SEC Sues Richard Heart, Hex, PulseChain on Unregistered Securities, Fraud Allegations (CoinDesk)
Bald Token Rugpull May Have Links to Sam Bankman-Fried’s Alameda, Data Shows (CoinDesk)
Judge shuts down Terraform’s motion to dismiss, despite use of Ripple ruling (Blockworks)
Volatility Shares not giving up on ETH futures ETF effort (Blockworks)
IRS Says Staking Rewards Is Taxable Income in Latest Revenue Ruling (Decrypt)
US judge tightens Bankman-Fried’s bail, considers jail until trial (Aljazeera)
Why does Changpeng Zhao have stablecoins on the brain? (Protos)
Coinbase’s Base had 24 hours of meme coin frenzy, rug pulls and $58m in deposits (DLNews)
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the 50 day moving average for the first time since June 20th when it rallied in just a few days to above $30,000. So far this year whenever BTC falls below the 50 day moving average the price then made its way to or near the 200 day moving average. This is some what boring to talk about because we’ve pointed out this price move for several weeks in a row.
The next two expected moves is the price to either test the 50 day moving average as resistance or move down to retest to 200 day MA as support. If Bitcoin is going to remain in a bull market the 200 day MA must hold as support. Historically, a lose of the 200 day MA has resulted in a multi-month bear market. A natural target if the 200 day MA is lost would be the 2023 open near $16,000.
How to play this stays the same. Look for a support near the 200 day MA ($26700). This could be a good place to buy with a somewhat tight stop loss. Another trade could be to short the bearish retest of the 50 day moving average ($29500) expecting the continued decline to $26700.
One last thing to note is that it’s still summer, volumes are low, and the price is being driven mostly by technical factors. There is little news driving the price action. It is expected that volumes will pick up in September so the current price action could change drastically has summer draws to an end.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
If long from early Q1 consider taking profit
If short from above $30k, stay short while price is below $30k. Consider the 200 day MA for taking profit.
Do nothing waiting for price to rise above $30000 or retest 200 day MA to get long
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
$30,000 failed to act as support
Fed hike 25 bps
50 day moving average failed to act as support
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal reviews BALD and the Coinbase’s new blockchain BASE.