Exhaustion
Bitcoin trades sideways for 15 days
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Huobi plans to list PayPal stablecoin 'soon' (The Block)
Coinbase to partially buy back $1 billion bonds at a premium (The Block)
Binance sold USDC for BTC and ETH after Silvergate Bank collapse: PoR report (CoinTelegraph)
Buffett and Ackman take opposing sides on Treasury yields — What does it mean for Bitcoin? (CoinTelegraph)
PayPal’s Regulated Stablecoin Is a ‘Watershed Moment’ in Crypto Space, Says Partner Paxos (CoinDesk)
Reddit Community Tokens Moons and Bricks Soar 50% on Kraken Listing (CoinDesk)
CF Private Equity is building a blockchain fund (Blockworks)
Does Valkyrie have the inside track for the first ETF with ETH futures? (Blockworks)
Borderless Art Comes to Life With Superchief's Network of NFT Galleries (Decrypt)
Binance, CEO Zhao to seek dismissal of US watchdog’s complaint (Aljazeera)
Hackers used fake job interview to trigger $37M CoinsPaid hack (Protos)
Hong Kong regulators say crypto firms lie about submitting licence applications (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
The BTC price has been hovering under the 50 day moving average for the last 15 days, and trading in a relatively tight range compared to the first half of 2023. It appears that BTC has been shaking off any macro news, and participants are discounting the ETF approval that could happen as early as next week. The three outcomes to the ETF applications are denial, delay or acceptance. It appears that delay is being priced. It’s likely denial could result in BTC falling back to its 200 day moving average or even below that, and acceptance of an ETF could result in a rise back above $30k.
It is still prudent to wait for BTC to rise back above MicroStrategy’s average entry of $29,800 or retest and hold the 200 day moving average around $27,000 before getting into a position. This is because the last month or more of trading has resulted in choppy sideways price action. This type of price action can cause small loses to pile up as fake rallies and fake breakdowns can cause stoploss to get hit prematurely whether you are long or short.
We are expecting BTC to continue trading in a tight range with choppy price action until the ETF decision is announced. Until then we will continue observing key technical levels and the price’s reaction to these key supports and resistance.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
If long from early Q1 consider taking profit
If short from above $30k, stay short while price is below $30k. Consider the 200 day MA for taking profit.
Do nothing waiting for price to rise above $30000 or retest 200 day MA to get long
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
$30,000 failed to act as support
50 day moving average failed to act as support
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal examines ETH’s relative performance to BTC and the NASDAQ.
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