Floating To The Ceiling

BTC consolidating under key resistance

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Cheat Sheet -

Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.

08/15/23 11:23 AM ET

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What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

08/15/23 11:23 AM ET

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Crypto News

• Crypto market in early stages of new cycle, Delphi Digital co-founder says (The Block)

• Chinese Filecoin mining firm charged for allegedly orchestrating $83.3 million pyramid scheme (The Block)

• What is PayPal USD, and how does it work? (CoinTelegraph)

• Perfect storm for undervalued ASICs: Blockstream plans $50M raise to buy miners (CoinTelegraph)

• Sei Mainnet is Live After Testnet Sees More Than 7.5M Wallets Created (CoinDesk)

• Europe's First Spot Bitcoin ETF Lists in Amsterdam (CoinDesk)

• New fund gives on-chain investors another way to access US Treasury yields (Blockworks)

• Singapore urges stablecoin issuers to prepare for 2024 framework(Blockworks)

• Binance US Seeks Protective Order Against 'Fishing Expedition' by SEC (Decrypt)

• Bankman-Fried slapped with new charges of using stolen funds for politics (Aljazeera)

• Former Binance US custodian Prime Trust joins crypto’s chapter 11 club (Protos)

• Base frenzy fuels Coinbase revenue outlook amid rising fees and shrinking market share (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

BTC continues to consolidate under the 50 day moving average, which is now nearly equal to MicroStrategy’s average entry which has been acting as resistance since mid July. It also appears that the NASDAQ has formed a local top just one week after BTC made its 2023 high. However, the correlation between BTC and the NASDAQ is historically low as well as BTC’s volatility being the lowest since 2018 and 2019 bear markets.

If no buyers show up to push BTC back above the 50 day moving average in the next few weeks a retest of the 200 day moving average becomes more and more likely. One thing to note is with the diminishing volatility BTC continues to have less and less reaction to inflation numbers and fed meeting notes. This could be due to the hyper focus the market has on the SEC’s review of the Blackrock ETF proposal.

On shorter timeframes BTC has made several outside reversal attempts but all the gains were given back quickly and the price more or less continues to trade sideways. Its likely this pattern will continue until the ETF proposal is either officially denied or approved.

Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.

Possible Course of Action

• If long from early Q1 consider taking profit

• If short from above $30k, stay short while price is below $30k. Consider the 200 day MA for taking profit.

• Do nothing waiting for price to rise above $30000 or retest 200 day MA to get long

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price above 200 day MA

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• 50 day moving average currently acting as resistance

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal examines NASDAQ and NIKKEI futures.