One Step Closer To The Merge
Crypto holds onto summer gains as the merge is nearly 20 days away.
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Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GOLD, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins
New here? Learn how to read the cheat sheet.
What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Citi head of forex to leave bank for digital assets role: source (The Block)
Tokens with Ethereum Merge Exposure - by DexGuru (The Block)
LooksRare Fork Sudorare Rugs for $800K Despite Crypto Twitter Warnings (CoinDesk)
Crypto Exchange Coinbase Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Alleged Lapses in Security (CoinDesk)
One-third of estimated 115M Indian crypto users concerned about regulations (CoinTelegraph)
Bitcoin mining to cost less than 0.5% of global energy if BTC hits $2M: Arcane (CoinTelegraph)
Ethereum community splits over solutions for transaction censorship (CoinTelegraph)
Transparency Is Coming to Bitcoin Mining as Institutions Eyeball ESG (Blockworks)
TradFi Clearing House Turns to Blockchain to Settle Transactions (Blockworks)
Mark Cuban Slams SEC Chair Gensler's Stance on Crypto (Decrypt)
Argentine Presidential Candidate Sued Over Alleged Crypto Ponzi Scheme (Decrypt)
BTC has not moved an inch since it sold off last week. After failing to break above the May 12th low, BTC has retraced to the Fibonacci golden pocket drawn by the rally off the bottom in mid-June. The week is just starting, but the theme so far is slight altcoin outperformance. Could ETH and in turn other altcoins be taking away BTCs strength because of people speculating on the upcoming merge? The main economic driver behind the merge is ETH will go through a supply constraint equivalent to Bitcoin’s four year halvening. This means there will be a large reduction in the amount of new ETH supply hitting the market and this should theoretically increase the price if demand remains constant.
This red zone BTC is currently in is very tightly defined near $20.5k-$21.5k. If BTCs daily price closes above or below this level that could be a trading opportunity. A break below $20.5k would likely lead to a retest of the yearly lows and a close above $21.5k would likely be followed by another attempt to break above the May 12 low.
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Possible Course of Action
Do nothing and wait for price to move above $21.5k (get long)
Do nothing and wait for price to move below $20.5k (get short)
The Bulls’ Defense:
Stocks rallying, ETH rallying, BTC plays catch up
The Bears’ Prosecution:
ETH merge taking market share
Global macro uncertainty
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
Today we’ll follow up on last Thursday’s ETH commentary. Because the merge is on the top of everyone’s minds we will be following the price action closely as September 15th draws near.
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