War Edition

Conflict in the middle east sends Oil and Gold up and Crypto down

Oct 10, 2023

Cheat Sheet -

Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.

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What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

Crypto News

Bitcoin braces for fresh volatility amidst geopolitical uncertainty (The Block)
Worldcoin's Sam Altman tells Joe Rogan that US government is waging war on crypto (The Block)
FTX hacker could be using SBF trial as a smokescreen: CertiK (CoinTelegraph)
Local Web3 community launches ‘Crypto Aid Israel’ to help displaced citizens (CoinTelegraph)
Bankman-Fried Seeks to Probe Lawyers’ Involvement in $200M ‘Sham’ Alameda Loans (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin Could Fall Due to Israel-Hamas Tensions, Traders Worry (CoinDesk)
Trader Joe’s grocery chain sues DEX of the same name (Blockworks)
SBF attorneys make last minute request to enter new evidence (Blockworks)
Layer-2 Blockchains Host Most Ethereum Transactions: Messari (Decrypt)
Who’s Caroline Ellison, the star witness testifying against Sam Bankman-Fried? (Protos)
Israeli police seize Hamas crypto wallets on Binance, media reports say (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

Bitcoin continues to push against the 200 day moving average and finding resistance at this key level. The one remaining positive for the bulls is the price remains well above the 50 day moving average and day after day is making higher lows. However, there have also been back to back lower highs indicating that the price is in a volatility squeeze. Likely, this will result in a large movement out of this range.

If the price can reclaim the 200 day MA and flip resistance into support it would be likely that buyers would rush back into the market. Until then eyes remain on the 50 day MA to act as the next support. If this level is lost this could be a signal to short BTC expecting continuing downside into the end of the year.

Violence broke out in Israel over the weekend and the price of oil and gold reacted with upwards price movement at the US futures open. Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold was somewhat weakened by declining in price in response to the events. That being said, relative to the recent range, Bitcoin’s price has not had a significant response to this news compared to oil and gold that saw a gap in the futures prices.

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Possible Course of Action

Do nothing, remain flat and wait for price to rise above 200 day MA or below June low
If short stay short while price remains below 200 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halvening (2024 summer)

The Bulls’ Defense:

ETF decision could still happen in 2023
price held June low as support
price above 50 day MA

The Bears’ Prosecution:

price trading below 200 day MA

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