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The Three Kinds of Lies
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” -Samuel Langhorne Clemens
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
Are you new to Foot Guns? Learn how to read the cheat sheet here.
What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Inside SBF's Trial: Nishad Singh said no, but not often enough (The Block)
Microsoft veteran joins Matter Labs to unlock 'holy grail' of web3 with zkSync (The Block)
Clarification on sharing false spot Bitcoin ETF news (CoinTelegraph)
EtherHiding: Hackers create novel way to hide malicious code in blockchains (CoinTelegraph)
FTX Plans to Return 90% of Customer Funds, But There's a Catch (CoinDesk)
Trading Bitcoin on Binance Got Tougher During the ETF Rumor Frenzy: Kaiko (CoinDesk)
Binance UK will stop accepting new UK customers temporarily (Blockworks)
Uniswap Labs to institute 0.15% fee on select assets and frontends (Blockworks)
Can the Bitcoin Lightning Network Disrupt Media Monetization? (Decrypt)
What did Alameda Research do with $40B in USDT? (Protos)
How Hamas and SBF thwart crypto bills in the US (DLNews)
If you missed the news yesterday, well don’t worry to much. As you may well know by now we don’t spend much time focused on the news when it comes to price of assets. It’s easy to get lost in the stew of information being passed around on social media about what event is causing a certain assets price to move. In last week’s newsletter it was mentioned that Bitcoin was showing some strength by staying above the 50 day moving average and pushing into the 200 day MA. We also mentioned that if the 200 day MA were reclaimed that buyers would take this as a signal to come back into the market.
Well.. yesterday CoinTelegraph’s twitter (X) account posted (tweeted) that a Bitcoin ETF had officially been approved. It’s a fact that the price was already moving up before this tweet came out and that the major price action occurred just after Bitcoin broke the 200 day moving average. So, one could argue that the market was responding to the news or that traders were just positioned off sides and the move above the 200 day MA triggered a buy signal for many creating a short covering rally.
Considering how strongly the 50 day MA has recently acted as support, what matters now is how the price responds to the 200 day MA. If it can stay above this level over this week then one would expect a continuation of this rally and possibly a move above and beyond the 2023 high. However, because these supports have been so strong in the recent months, losing them would likely be a signal to short with a chance the price moves all the way back to $14-16k.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
Get Long here while price remains above 200 day MA
Short if price falls below 200day and 50 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halvening (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision could still happen in 2023
price above 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Yesterday’s rally was given back quickly
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