Why The ETF Not
"Bitcoin continues rallying on ETF approval fake news"
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
DCG says it was 'blind sided' by NYAG suit in third quarter shareholder letter (The Block)
Fireblocks taps former New York regulator to step up compliance (The Block)
Stablecoin market escaping US regulatory oversight: Chainalysis (CoinTelegraph)
Bitcoin price surge sees significant asset outflow on crypto exchanges (CoinTelegraph)
Binance Again Seeks to Nix ‘Incendiary’ CFTC Suit (CoinDesk)
How Bhutan Became a Carbon-Neutral Hub For Crypto Mining (CoinDesk)
BlackRock takes apparent new step in bitcoin ETF prep (Blockworks)
Lightspark hopes Bitcoin Lightning payment standard will strike interest (Blockworks)
Andreessen Horowitz Backs Nym's $300M Privacy-Centric 'Innovation Fund' (Decrypt)
TrueUSD was hacked and issued fake tokens (Protos)
Why the VCs behind Discord are betting $103m web3 gaming is for real (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Last week we suggested to be long while Bitcoin remains above its 200 day MA and this has played out nicely. Bitcoin is now trading in a new range and guessing where it will stop is difficult. The obvious first target was $35k where there was a CME gap in mid 2022. This is also an area of accumulation from the spring and summer of 2021. However, the price is already here. The next target then is $42k where Bitcoin failed to find support in early 2022. This is also the point that the initial wick down in December 2021 stopped.
It’s certainly possible that the rally stops here and $35k is the local top for some time. The same trade should continue to work using the 200 and 50 day moving averages to time buy orders. Shorting is risky here because it’s not obvious where resistance lies yet. Once a range is established it can become a viable option.
One comment on the ETF news. It doesn’t make any sense to “wait for the approval” to buy. The ETF has been a known unknown for 5+ years and Bitcoin has gotten along just fine without it. There’s a reason the saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” is well known - it works! This could be why many jumped into this trade when the “fake” ETF news was released by CoinTelegraph last week. This “fake news” could be interpreted as “the rumor”. So, when the real approval news is finally announced (whenever that is) its much better to be positioned to be a seller than rushing into some 10 minute rally.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
Get Long here while price remains above 200 day MA
Short if price falls below 200day and 50 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halvening (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision could still happen in 2023
price above 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
No strong arguments for the bear case at current
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