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The Holiday Season
Today we look at Bitcoin's historical November MoM performance
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Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Kraken says products remain unaffected amid SEC’s new ‘disastrous’ lawsuit (The Block)
Blur founder's Ethereum Layer 2 Blast goes live in early access after $20 million raise (The Block)
Expect some crypto companies to fail in the wake of Bitcoin's halving (CoinTelegraph)
dYdX founder blames v3 central components for ‘targeted attack,’ involves FBI (CoinTelegraph)
Argentina’s Election: What Bitcoiners Are Getting Wrong (CoinDesk)
Does Worldcoin Need a Reevaluation? Understanding Sam Altman’s Crypto-AI-UBI Experiment (CoinDesk)
Bittrex Global won’t let users withdraw in USD as it winds down (Blockworks)
SEC accuses Kraken of commingling customer funds, operating unregistered exchange (Blockworks)
BONK Goes Boom: Solana Meme Coin Soars 1,700% in 30 Days to Hit All-Time High (Decrypt)
Tether sent $1B to UK firm owned by prominent Conservative donor (Protos)
Did Yearn Finance insiders dump on holders? Not really (DLNews)
This Thursday is Thanksgiving in the US marking the start of the holiday season. With the end of the month next week, lets break from looking at the chart and instead take a look at Bitcoin’s historical month over month performance. The first thing to note is that November is on average Bitcoin’s most performant month followed by April and October. Averages can be misleading though, because for these months the averages are skewed by just single entries: April 2011 (346% return), October 2010 (211% return), and November 2013 (471% return). In fact the November 2013 rally was the last time Bitcoin experience triple digit MoM returns. However, it was January of this year that Bitcoin saw nearly a 40% MoM gain.
Looking back at November, Bitcoin has only had one positive MoM return in November in the past 5 years, which was in 2020 during the start of the bull run where Bitcoin was reapproaching it’s pervious ATH created in 2017. Prior to 2017, Bitcoin only had one negative MoM return year during November. Another data point is that in the past 5 years if November ended in the red so did December and vice versa for November ending in the green.
What does all this mean?
Just using the average one could think that Bitcoin is expected to have a positive return the month of November and possibly one of the highest MoM returns this year. However, we’ve seen that during bear market years November has marked the end of the recent rally and saw sharp declines. The recent years where Bitcoin’s market structure was bullish November has been lucrative, with some of the highest returns for the year and the rally often continuing through December. A deviation to the mean would require Bitcoin to go up ~28% more in the remaining days of the month.
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Possible Course of Action
Stay Long here while price remains above 50 day MA
Short if price falls below 50 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halving (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision could still happen in 2023
Golden Cross of 50day and 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Consolidation could retest $35k
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