BOJ Raises Its Cap

Crypto markets coincidentally rally as BOJ raises the cap on 10 yr yields from 0.25 to 0.5.

---

Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GOLD, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

12/20/22 9:37 AM ET

here? Learn how to read the cheat sheet.

What We Are Watching

We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching

12/20/22 9:37 AM ET

---

Crypto News

• Coinbase's Brian Armstrong: Crypto regulators should leave DeFi alone (The Block)

• BlockFi seeks to reopen withdrawals for certain users (The Block)

• Visa proposes using StarkNet for automatic recurring payments (The Block)

• Polygon Founder Unveils Web3 Accelerator Beacon (CoinDesk)

• Crypto Twitter Delves Into Strange Side of Trump’s NFT Collection (CoinDesk)

• Bitcoin Addresses Tied to Defunct Canadian Crypto Exchange QuadrigaCX Wake Up (CoinDesk)

• Crowdfunding gets leg up from Lightning Addresses on Bitcoin (CoinTelegraph)

• GBTC Not Interested in Redemptions, but Considering Other Options (Blockworks)

• Binance Market Share Bounces Back, BNB Price Consolidating (Blockworks)

• Alameda-backed Ren Warns Crypto Could Be Lost as Platform Shuts Down (Blockworks)

• FTX Now Seeking 'Prompt Return' of SBF's Political Donations (Decrypt)

• Bored Ape Creator Yuga Labs Nabs New CEO From Gaming Giant Activision Blizzard (Decrypt)

---

Across is the fastest, cheapest and most secure bridge between L1 and L2s. Try it now

---

BTC Outlook

After a fake out to the upside of this bull flag, we are now witnessing a potential bear trap. Of course, it’s only a bear trap if the price moves back up. The obvious resistance here is $17000, the big round number that creates a psychological effect on buyers and sellers. One of our trading rules is “everyone is always looking for a reason to buy and sell” and I guess yesterday they got one. The bank of Japan gave up on holding the rate of their 10 year bonds to 0.25% and will now let it move up to 0.5%. The 10 year bonds (JGBs) are a widely traded instrument and they are now yielding 100% more than they were two days ago.

This will have broad effect on global markets, but I personally would not be so quick to jump to the conclusion that crypto markets are responding to this news. Even if this was a response, I am not sure it’s very meaningful or much time should be spent trying to gauge the impact.

I am a bit surprised by Bitcoin’s recovery this morning. It seems to have turned at round at a seemingly random point based on any technical indicators. This makes me even more skeptical if it cannot push through $17k this week. Historically, there has been a Santa Claus rally that starts just after Christmas and ends a few days into the New Year. $17k again becomes a critical resistance to break if Santa Claus is going to show up this year.

Possible Course of Action

• Do nothing wait for $17k to act as resistance or support

• If $17k holds as support get long with an expect return to the 50 day moving average ($17.3k) and possibly the 20 week around $19.4k.

• If $17k acts as resistance get long with an expected return to $15.5k (the yearly low).

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Bull Flag still in tact

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• $17k currently acting as resistance

---

Earn Interest on your Bitcoin

---

A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal reviews a stock and an altcoin you should be using as a barometer to gauge market sentiment.