Inflation Beat, Merge Looms
CPI comes in under expectations. The ETH merge gets closer
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
T. Rowe Price poaches new digital asset strategy head from hedge fund Dunamis (The Block)
BlackRock launches private trust offering direct bitcoin exposure (The Block)
Ban Banks From Holding Crypto, UN Development Body Says (CoinDesk)
South Korea Arrests Three in Multi-Billion Dollar Crypto-Linked Probe (CoinDesk)
Ethereum Merge on track as Goerli test merge successfully finalized (CoinTelegraph)
FTC Probe Into $200M BitMart Hack Continues After Doc Block Denied (Blockworks)
First Coinbase-leveraged ETF Makes Market Debut Ahead of Earnings Report (Blockworks)
Swan Bitcoin Discloses Data Leak Due to Phishing Attack on Newsletter Provider (Decrypt)
Mailchimp Resumes Crackdown on Crypto Newsletters Including Messari, Edge (Decrypt)
BTC Outlook
The CPI print came in just under expectations yesterday and Bitcoin took this as a green light to rally. One thing I noticed yesterday was many of the altcoins we follow such as MATIC, FTX, and UNI did not put in new local highs yesterday and appear to have sold off into BTC slightly.
Back to the chart…
Note that the BTC price is about to be meet the bottom of the May 12 sell off wick. This will be an important level to watch. How BTC behaves in the coming months around this level will be telling.
Drawn on the chart in red/pink is the Fibonacci golden pocket for the June sell off. This is the opposite of how we normally draw these retracements. This shows you the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci extensions looking at the distance the price traveled from mid May until mid June. This can be a good place for a “dead cat bounce” to lose steam. If you are long from below $20k this could be a good place to take profits.
In Blue is the Fibonacci golden pocket for the July rally (so the other way around). If the price is unable to move above the May 12 low and hold the red zone as support then this blue zone could be a good spot to bid looking for a retracement. It’s possible a short from $25k down to $21k could work too but the momentum is currently towards the upside.
Possible Course of Action
Take profits here if long since below $20k
Do nothing and wait for $25k to act as resistance or hold as support
Short here looking for a retest of $20k
Do nothing and wait for a retest of $20k
The Bulls’ Defense:
CPI print under expectations
Stocks rallying, ETH rallying, BTC plays catch up
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Potential Bear Flag
May 12 wick may act as resistance
A Closer Look
Ethereum’s Third and Final Testnet Merge Goes Live on Goerli. Today we’ll talk about ETH and how to trade the merge.
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