On the Edge
Discover more from Foot Guns
On the Edge
Bitcoins price is teetering on the edge of another leg down. Will BTC take a trip to the low $20ks?
Don’t miss Boomer’s Guide to the Bear Market. This Private Podcast focuses on the depegging of Tether, the blow up of Terra USD, how it relates to traditional markets, and possible contagion. Available to Premium Subscribers only.
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
At Davos, Crypto Is No Longer on the Outside (CoinDesk)
WEF 2022: SWIFT probably won't exist in 5 years, says Mastercard CEO (CoinTelegraph)
WEF 2022: Metaverse should be developed from children’s perspective, says Lego VP (CoinTelegraph)
New DeFi Index Targets ‘Proven’ Blue-chip Assets (Blockworks)
JPMorgan: Crypto Trumps Real Estate As ‘Preferred Alternative Asset Class’ (Blockworks)
Portugal’s Parliament Says No to Bitcoin Tax—for Now (Decrypt)
DraftKings CEO on Accepting Crypto Payments: 'People Want It, We're Working Towards It' (Decrypt)
Hacker Steal Your Crypto? New MetaMask Tool Could Help You Get it Back (Decrypt)
Latest Crypto Fund Offers Yield on USD Amid Rampant Inflation (Blockworks)
I was about to get liquidated on a sidechain this morning but I used across to save my ass!
BTC Outlook
It’s easy to draw some TA that will match whatever bias you have right now when looking at the BTC price. The wick down on May 12th means that everyone doing TA on BTC has to ignore the wick in order to draw nice line. Is this a falling wedge, a symmetric triangle, or on shorter time frames two head and shoulders formed, the first never played out and the at current time the price is at the neckline of a second pattern. All we can tell from this price action is that sellers are impatient and buyers are coming in consistently around $28.5k.
If you have some personal conviction around whether this breaks up or down then take the trade. Whichever way the price goes from here it will be an outsized move compared to this consolidation pattern. If you want to play this conservatively then wait for the price to break out before buying into that direction.
Possible Course of Action
Long under $30k expecting to fill the CME gap at $36k
Do nothing and wait for a breakout
Short any weakness looking for short term trades
The Bulls’ Defense:
Double Head and Shoulders rejected
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global macro uncertainty
Still trading under $30k
ETH Outlook
ETH took a dive this morning. As we mentioned last Tuesday, we are watching closely the ETH/BTC pair, and this morning it made a large move down. The consolidation pattern started on May 11th did not last long. In past crypto bear cycles, we have witnessed similar behavior. We had actually mentioned his in April but ETH continued to consolidate against BTC so we thought maybe there was a new pattern emerging. The ETH/BTC pair is now approaching 0.06 as the ratio and we expect this round number to act as temporary support. Only when BTC reclaims its 50-day moving average do we expect the ETH/BTC to start rising again.
Possible Course of Action
Caution here as ETH is highly correlated with the tech stock sell off
Wait for BTC to rise above 50-day MA before long ETH
Short ETH/ long BTC might work (well it did yesterday!)
The Bulls’ Defense:
EIP-1559 has burned $4,226,383,605 (2,364,940 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global macro uncertainty
Nasdaq correlation and sell off
ETH/BTC pair continues to be weak
What are you doing with your LUNA? Everyday in our Premium Discord we're discussing what to do with LUNA. Shit some of our members are buying it! If you have LUNA you should probably upgrade to Premium now so we can navigate this shit storm together.