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Out Of Steam
The Bitcoin rally struggles to continue the climb
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Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
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It’s probably going to keep going sideways. We wrote a in mid-January that at some point BTC would need to retest the 50 day moving average to prove if the price is really in a bullish state. We also wrote that it could get there by simply drifting sideways until the moving average rose up to the price. Well this course has appeared to play out and now BTC is hovering just a few hundred dollars about the 50 day moving average.
If you’ve been receiving our Cheat Sheet, you’d know that over the last few weeks a bullish rally has turned into neutral bias and now threatening to flip bearish. An overraction to the down side if BTC crosses below the 50 day MA would not be surprising. In fact losing this level would likely see a retest of the FTX local top around $21.5k.
It is entirely possible we see a bullish reaction to BTC retesting the 50 day moving average. This would look something like the daily candle wicking off the 50 day and the following day following through with positive price action. A bounce of the 50 day would give the bulls confidence and buyers may try to push the price up again price to March inflation data and FOMC.
Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC meets resistance near $25k.
Possible Course of Action
Do nothing and wait for BTC to retest the 50 day moving average and hold as support expecting a retest of $25k
Do nothing and wait for BTC to rise above $25k and hold as support
Short here expecting a retest of the FTX local high around $21.5k
The Bulls’ Defense:
Trading above 50 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
$25k double top
A Closer Look
The price action has been stale this week. See Tuesdays article as the commentary is still the most accurate for today. We’ll be back next week as March’s price action unfolds.
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