Relief Rally- Really?

Yesterday Bitcoin gained over 8% in 1 day. Where do we go next?

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Solana stablecoin Nirvana sinks 90% amid $3.5 million flash loan exploit (The Block)

• NFT indexing company Center raises $11 million seed round (The Block)

• Zipmex files for protection against creditors in Singapore (The Block)

• Bitcoin Awaits US GDP After Biggest Single-Day Gain in 6 Weeks (CoinDesk)

• First Mover Asia: Crypto Companies Struggle With Layoffs, but Some See Opportunity to Add Talent; BTC, ETH Soar After Fed Rate Hike (CoinDesk)

• Sky-High Yields and Bright Red Flags: How Alex Mashinsky Went From Bashing Banks to Bankrupting Celsius (CoinDesk)

• ‘I have Bitcoin for the benefit of my kids,’ says Gibraltar MP (CoinTelegraph)

• Binance jumps into NFT ticketing after UEFA League fiasco (CoinTelegraph)

• Lido DAO: Ethereum’s biggest Merge staker soars 400% in July — but technicals flash warning (CoinTelegraph)

• Web3 Watch: What are Semi-Fungible Tokens and Why is Coinbase Making a Movie? (Blockworks)

• US Stablecoin Bill Pushed to After August Recess (Decrypt)

• Over $202M in Short Bitcoin, Ethereum Positions Liquidated Amid Bullish Move (Decrypt)

• UK Commission Aims to Clarify Crypto Property Law (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

If you go read Tuesday’s newsletter nothing has really changed. We got a 0.75 interest rate hike from the fed and the price didn’t break to the down side of this bear flag. However, it also hasn’t broken out to the upside. So, there’s really no new advice for this week. You still have to make a choice: trade the range, buy the breakout or short the breakdown. A daily close above $25k would likely result in a continuation to retest the 20 week moving average which is at $31k. Breaking down from this bear flag would push us to the next level of monthly support on the cheat sheet near $12k.

We suggested on Tuesday that we’d have a short term bullish bias if $21-$22k held as support. This has now played out.

Possible Course of Action

• Long if $25k holds as support

• Get long now expecting a short term higher high ($25k)

• Trade the range (long $20k, short $25k)

• Short targets if BTC loses $20k ($19k, $12k, $9k)

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Downtrend has lost momentum

• 8% daily green candle could be signs of a turn around

• Rejection of bear flag possible

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Potential Bear Flag breakdown

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Earn Interest on your Bitcoin

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A Closer Look

For today’s closer look we will check in on ETH. The NASDAQ correlation and the ETH/BTC ratio. Did you know ETH/BTC never retraced the all time high in this past bull market? Not even close actually. ETH/BTC is currently down -54% from the ATH in July 2017.