Santa Claus Is A Hawk

Hawkish fed statements may keep Santa Claus away this year.

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Coinbase now helps recover unsupported ERC-20 tokens sent by mistake (The Block)

• Zero-knowledge proofs could solve CBDC privacy concerns, research shows (The Block)

• BitGo refused to unwind $50 million in wrapped bitcoin for Alameda (The Block)

• The Sandbox Onboards Security Firm OpenZeppelin to Protect Its Platform from Attacks (CoinDesk)

• Incoming FCA Chair Calls Crypto Firms Like FTX 'Deliberately Evasive' (CoinDesk)

• Top FTX Group Executive Tipped Off Bahamas Authorities About Comingling of Funds in November (CoinDesk)

• Microsoft bans cryptocurrency mining on cloud services (CoinTelegraph)

• Only 3 FTX Execs Could’ve Sent User Funds to Alameda: Co-CEO (Blockworks)

• MetaMask Mobile Users Can Now Buy ETH Using PayPal (Blockworks)

• White House Refuses to Answer Questions About Sam Bankman-Fried Donations (Decrypt)

• Coinbase CEO Says Revenue Will Be ‘Half or Less’ of Last Year’s (Decrypt)

• SBF Denied Bail, Will Fight Extradition from The Bahamas (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

The market was poised to rally going into the fed minutes yesterday but sold off after it was announced that the fed would remain tighter than expected through 2023 even though this rate hike was 0.5 instead of 0.75 like the previous three hikes. On the chart BTC was able to reclaim the June 18th low with the positive response to lower inflation, but after the fed statements it quickly sold off and is now retesting the June 18 low as support.

The 50 day moving average is also approaching this critical support level. The last 6 months BTC has struggled over the weekend so we could see a complete lose of this week’s gains and a retracement all the way back to $17k. Many expect a Santa Claus rally in the second half of December which historically has taken place in the stock market. However, with the hawkish outlook from the fed, continued elevated inflation, and general negative sentiments, there is a strong possibility prices continue to crawl down or sideways through the remainder of the year.

A failure to hold the June low into next week or another rejection of the 50 day moving average would point to more months of bearish price action. So, we are back to sitting on the sidelines waiting for one of these crucial support levels to hold.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC can find support at the June low.

Possible Course of Action

• Do nothing and wait for 50 day moving average to act as support

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price still above June 18 low

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Hawkish fed

• Rejection of 50 day moving average

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Earn Interest on your Bitcoin

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal discusses UNI and its short term relative outperformance.