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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

Cheat Sheet

Crypto News

• Ethereum on Track for Testnet Merge in June (Coindesk)

• FTX US Debuts Stock Trading in Push for Bigger Slice of US Retail Pie (Coindesk)

• Mike Novogratz Ends Twitter Silence, Shares Take on UST/LUNA Crash(Coindesk)

• South Korean watchdog reportedly fines Terraform Labs $78M for tax evasion (Cointelegraph)

• Coinbase launches new crypto think tank to help shape policies (Cointelegraph)

• Aave Launches Alternative to Traditional Social Media (Blockworks)

• China Reemerges as Top Mining Hub a Year After Blanket Ban (Blockworks)

• Web3 Watch: Spotify Trials NFTs and Madonna’s First NFT Collection (Blockworks)

• CFTC Expected to Add More Resources to Better Monitor Crypto Markets (Decrypt)

• Andreessen Horowitz Launches $600M Fund Focused on Metaverse Games (Decrypt)

BTC Outlook

The last few days it appears BTC was forming a head and shoulders pattern when trying to rally off the recent wick down to the mid $20ks. Yesterday afternoon’s price action made it appear BTC was about to complete the head and shoulders breaking down under the neckline. However, buyers were waiting and brought the price back up above the neckline quickly. One of our trading rules applies here, “when you are wrong you are often more wrong than you’d ever imagined". In this case the head and shoulders turned into a bear trap and we expect a retest of $30k at minimum.

We aren’t out of the wood yet. Global risk assets continue to appear uncertain. Expect more consolidation in the coming week(s).

Possible Course of Action

• Long under $30k expecting to fill the CME gap at $36k

• Do nothing and wait for further consolidation

• Short any weakness looking for short term trades

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Head and Shoulders rejected

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Global macro uncertainty

• Still trading under $30k

ETH Outlook

Over the last week, ETH has traded weakly against BTC. Since, the rejection of this bull flag ETH continues to slowly lose steam. However, we are expecting consolidation at these levels as ETH has traded here historically versus BTC for some time. Most likely the ETH/BTC pair will continue to consolidate or even sell off as long as tech stocks are selling of or consolidating.

There’s not a clear direction here. We will continue to monitor and update you as soon as there is some movement!

Possible Course of Action

• Caution here as ETH is highly correlated with the tech stock sell off

• Wait for further consolidation and confirmation of a higher low

• If you want to be long BTC, you can be long ETH for more beta

The Bulls’ Defense:

• EIP-1559 has burned $4,662,467,042 (2,347,856 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Global macro uncertainty

• Nasdaq correlation and sell off

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