The End of Retrograde
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The End of Retrograde
Will the stars align to turn around the market? Or will June see Bitcoin making a new low?
Don’t miss Boomer’s Guide to the Bear Market. This Private Podcast focuses on the depegging of Tether, the blow up of Terra USD, how it relates to traditional markets, and possible contagion. Available to Premium Subscribers only.
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
Paradigm Backs $5M Round in DAO Management Platform Dework (CoinDesk)
SoftBank, GGV Lead $66M Round for Web 3 Infrastructure Firm InfStones (CoinDesk)
Merge Ahead: Ethereum’s Dress Rehearsal (and a Hiccup) [CoinDesk]
Binance Labs Raises $500M Fund for Web 3, Blockchain Investments (CoinDesk)
KuCoin plugs into Web3 with new decentralized wallet (CoinTelegraph)
Computer scientists and academics pursue efforts to stop crypto lobbying in US (CoinTelegraph)
Singapore Central Bank Ready To Try DeFi After Crypto Giants Leave for Dubai (Blockworks)
CoinShares Took $21M Loss From UST Crash (Blockworks)
JPMorgan Exec: Payments Systems Are the Future of Fintech (Blockworks)
PoolTogether Flocks to NFTs To Raise Legal Defense Funds (Blockworks)
Terra Collapse Sparks Stablecoin Regulation in the UK (Blockworks)
Bank of England to Rescue Collapsing Stablecoin Issuers—If They’re Big Enough (Decrypt)
Ethereum Scaling Solution Optimism Airdrops Tokens to 249K Wallets (Decrypt)
Why ‘Hunger Games’ Co-Producer Bryan Unkeless Is Making His Next Sci-Fi Project in Web3 (Decrypt)
Was Alleged $2 Million Exploit of Mirror Protocol ‘100% Preventable’? (Decrypt)
BTC Outlook
It’s like we are looking at a chart of a want to be stablecoin. Every time Bitcoin has attempted to break out of this consolidation range either to the upside of the downsie it immediately snaps back into place. We still think the story is the same. Bitcoin will continue to consolidate in these ranges and possibly test the bottom around $28.5k again. A short back down to the bottom of the range could work as well as patiently buying any breakdowns. So far the bulls are making an attempt to push the price up and failing.
Check out article from Tuesday. We still think eventually this range will resolve with a move to $36k.
Possible Course of Action
Long under $28.5k expecting to fill the CME gap at $36k
Do nothing and wait for a breakout
Short any weakness looking for short term trades
The Bulls’ Defense:
Breakout of downtrend
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global macro uncertainty
Still trading under $30k
Breakout of downtrend thrown back quickly
ETH Outlook
ETH continues to sell off with respect to Bitcoin. The pair broke out of its downtrend in March but was unable to hold pace. Now, ETH is slowly selling off against Bitcoin and moving to the edge of this consolidation around 0.055 ETH/BTC. If this consolidation breaks and full retraces that is a -50% move against Bitcoin. This would result in scenarios like : $30,000 Bitcoin and $900 ETH or $60,000 Bitcoin and $1800 ETH. Many are looking to ETH’s switch to Proof of Stake promised this month as a catalyst for ETH’s price to rise again. However, many forget that the main factor in ETH’s historic price rise is Bitcoin’s halvening which lead to a bull market.
It appears ETH will continue to be weak against Bitcoin until a retest of the 0.055 level. As always we expect a turn around in the Bitcoin price to bring the ETH/BTC ratio back up.
Possible Course of Action
Caution here as ETH is highly correlated with the tech stock sell off
Wait for BTC to rise above 50-day MA before long ETH
Short ETH/ long BTC might work
The Bulls’ Defense:
EIP-1559 has burned $4,295,183,366 (2,389,372 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.
ETH 2.0 launch
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global macro uncertainty
Nasdaq correlation and sell off
ETH/BTC pair continues to be weak
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