The Half Time Report

Bitcoin stalls out; Hal reviews the dollar

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• 1inch Network enters the hardware wallet business (The Block)

• Founder and CTO of DCG-owned crypto exchange Luno departs (The Block)

• The =nil; Foundation Raises $22M to Build Marketplace for Zero Knowledge Proofs (CoinDesk)

• Ethereum Development Firm Flashbots Eyes Unicorn Status as it Seeks to Raise $50M (CoinDesk)

• Coinbase Follows Kraken to Japan Exit (Blockworks)

• Circle Taps Deloitte as New Auditor, Doubles Down on Proof of Reserves (Blockworks)

• National Australia Bank to Launch Stablecoin on Ethereum, Algorand (Decrypt)

• OKX Reveals $7.2B of 'Clean' Assets in Latest Proof-of-Reserves Report (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

Lets keep it simple.

Since the beginning of the year BTC has been trading above its one week moving average (showing in orange).

If price is above the one week MA = bullish, if price below = bearish.

In my experience when something has such a strong and fast price rise, as soon as it falls below some significant moving average it can be a while before any continuation of the initial price rise. However, a move below the one week moving average is not a death sentence for BTC. It could simply be a pause in the upthrust and does not mean BTC is going to make a new low for the year.

Certainly, if this particular MA fails to hold as support there could be days if not weeks of consolidation below the current price level. If you’ve been holding onto a long position since below $17k then BTC falling below the one week MA could be a prudent time to take profit.

Similarly to using this MA as a stop loss for longs, one could short if the MA fails to act as support and then use it as a stop loss for shorts if it fails to act as resistance.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC can find support at this lower time frame moving average.

Possible Course of Action

• Remain long if one week moving average acts as support

• Short if one week moving average fails to act as support

• Do nothing and wait for 1 week moving average to act as support to enter a long

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Currently trading above 200 day moving average

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• US stock market uncertainty

• Fed decision could bring markets down

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal looks at the EUR/USD and JPY/USD and what it tells us about crypto.