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CHEAT SHEET
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
Ex-BitMEX CEO Hayes Asks for No Jail Time, Ability to Travel Freely (CoinDesk)
India's Parliamentary Finance Body 'Chides' Crypto Industry in Meeting (CoinDesk)
Decentralized Exchange MM.Finance Suffers $2M Exploit (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin celebrates halfway to the halving with new hash rate record (CoinTelegraph)
Binance commits $500M to co-invest in Twitter with Elon Musk (CoinTelegraph)
Yuga Labs Refunds Gas Fees For Failed Transactions During Bored Ape Otherdeed Mint (Decrypt)
Gucci to Begin Accepting Bitcoin in Some Stores (Decrypt)
‘Cryptocurrency Mining is Poisoning Our Communities,’ US Rep. Says (Blockworks)
California Unveils Crypto Executive Order as Competition for US Crypto Capital Builds (Blockworks)
Uzbekistan Wants Bitcoin Miners To Go Solar, Pay No Income Tax (Blockworks)
BTC Outlook
BTC is back in the box! I am sure many of you were doubting our call last week that BTC would stay inside of this box for a boring amount of time. After nearly a week trading under our box and at the pink dashed rising support BTC is now back inside of our box. The box itself is just centered around the doji candle on April 20th and the next doji on April 24th. In our opinion this marks an area of indecision, no clear signals to direct the price.
So, the FOMC meeting happened yesterday and the markets reacted with a decent rally. We expect this to cool off and retest the bottom of our box and maybe even retest the pink dashed line one more time. The daily cheat sheet has been flipping between bullish and neutral. The RSI on the daily is still under 50 and will need to trade above that for some sustained time to get prices back above $40k. Notice that the price is still not above this falling orange line that represents the selloff that started in April. This is giving us caution.
Possible Course of Action
Long here expecting a retest of the top side of this rectangle
Do nothing and wait for further consolidation
Short expecting a retest of the pink dashed support line
The Bulls’ Defense:
Higher lowers are a sign of price support
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global macro uncertainty
ETH Outlook
We are all just sitting here waiting to see when this correlation breaks. ETH and NQ are still 0.94 correlated so might as well just trade the Nasdaq, or at least be aware that when you are holding ETH right now it is moving in lock step with NQ just with a slightly different magnitude. At a glance it doesn’t look like either of these prices are going anywhere fast. Similar to BTC it appears ETH will trade sideways within the range of this year highs and lows.
It’s a good day to go outside and forget about crypto.
Possible Course of Action
Caution here as ETH is highly correlated with the tech stock sell off
Wait for further consolidation and confirmation of a higher low
The Bulls’ Defense:
EIP-1559 has burned $6,635,083,799 (2,273,924 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global macro uncertainty
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