Time Capitulation
Time Capitulation
The sideways crawl will test investor patience
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
BlackRock launches ETF in Europe with blockchain and crypto company exposure (The Block)
Europe AML rules could implicate DeFi, DAOs and NFTs (The Block)
Non-euro stablecoin transaction cap revived in MiCA (The Block)
EU Lawmakers Attack Amazon’s Involvement in Digital Euro Project (CoinDesk)
Crypto is Quietly Thriving in Sub-Saharan Africa (CoinDesk)
Jack Dorsey’s TBD Teams Up With Circle to Take US Dollar Stablecoin Savings and Remittances Global (CoinDesk)
Terraform Labs claims case against Do Kwon is ‘highly politicized’ (CoinTelegraph)
USDC Is Coming to Cosmos in 2023 (Blockworks)
First Blockchain-powered Reinsurer Gets a Funding Boost (Blockworks)
Crypto Carbon Credits Platform Raises $2B to Tap ‘Internet of Energy’ (Blockworks)
BNV Takes Paris Fashion Week Into the Metaverse With K-Pop Group Lightsum (Decrypt)
SEC Charges Crypto Firm Hydrogen Technology With Market Manipulation, Selling Unregistered Securities (Decrypt)
BTC Outlook
We can now look back at September and say it is significant that Bitcoin’s price did not fall below the yearly low after a CPI print that shocked equity markets. You should also note that gold took out it’s yearly lows as well. This probably doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is going to enter a bull market in Q4 but it does mean you can probably trade the range. It’s likely in the coming months Bitcoin will swing between $19k and $25k as it continues to consolidate.
If June was the end of price capitulation we are now entering a period of time capitulation. You can see this if you go look at a full history of Bitcoin’s price action. After a bull market top the price quickly sells off and then goes sideways for long periods of time. It is my belief we are entering the long sideways phase.
It is certainly possible Bitcoin makes a new low in the end of 2022 or 2023 but it will take time. This isn’t a moment to just short and walk away. There will most likely be good shorting opportunities if you are patient and wait for relief rallies to occur. This is probably the time to start DCAing in if you are HODLr type with the plan of having at least a year or more to buy near these prices. It’s been more than 3 months now that Bitcoin has been trading near or below $25k.
Possible Course of Action
Long spot (DCA, hodl)
Short any relief rallies near daily resistance for a short term trade (cheat sheet)
The Bulls’ Defense:
Higher low
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Price continues to test resistance
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
The ETH merge is over, the price sold off. What’s next? Today we catch up with ETH’s price action since the merge.
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