Undervalued or Value Trap?

Today we consider if this short term rally has legs

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Binance stablecoin push eats into tether’s market share as BUSD volume surges (The Block)

• Fantom to automatically detect smart contract bugs with Watchdog (The Block)

• FTX could launch its own stablecoin via a partnership, says Bankman-Fried (The Block)

• India Seeing Spike in Drug Smuggling Using Crypto (CoinDesk)

• Most Crypto Scams on BNB Chain, Solidus Labs Says (CoinDesk)

• Crowdfunding Platform StartEngine to Acquire Rival SeedInvest From Circle (CoinDesk)

• The UK has a new name for stablecoins and a new bill to regulate crypto (CoinTelegraph)

• Blockchain.com Eyes Funding at 70% Lower Valuation: Report (Blockworks)

• 74% of Institutions Plan to Buy Crypto: Fidelity Survey (Blockworks)

• Celsius Creditors Fight to Stop $23M Stablecoin Sale (Blockworks)

• Google Launches Cloud Node Engine For Ethereum Developers (Decrypt)

• Future of Work in the Metaverse to Look 'More Like Video Games': Microsoft Xbox Lead (Decrypt)

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Cowswap, gas less swapping, MeV protection and better prices.

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BTC Outlook

Blue - 20 day moving average; Orange - 20 week moving average

If you missed the last few newsletters, we’ve been following the relationship of the price to the 20 day and 20 week moving averages. These are important initial averages to rise above if any kind of real reversal rally is going to sustain. As you can see for the past year BTC has been trading under the 20 weeks moving average (orange) and mostly trading under the 20 day moving average (blue). You’ll also notice that the rally in July/Aug rose above the 20 day moving average but was nowhere near rising above the 20 week moving average. We are now at a critical moment where BTC is finally testing the 20 week moving average as resistance for the first time since April. This would be the minimum requirement for the start of any mid-term rally.

It’s likely the price continues to squeeze volatility as it compresses between the 20 week and 20 day moving average. It’s probably as simple here as ignoring everything and just watching how the price interacts with these moving averages in the coming weeks.

Possible Course of Action

• Stay long if price is above 20 day moving average

• Short if 20 weeks MA holds as resistance

• Get long if price holds 20 week MA as support

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price is above $20k and 20 day MA

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• 20 week MA is acting as resistance

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Earn Interest on your Bitcoin

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal checks in on his favorite altcoins for trading in Q4.