The Ambivalent Asset

Bitcoin retraces February gains

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Tether reports $700 million Q4 net profit in latest attestation report (The Block)

• Aave's GHO stablecoin goes live on Ethereum's Goerli testnet (The Block)

• The Narrative Around Artificial Intelligence Focused Cryptocurrencies (CoinDesk)

• MakerDAO Introduces Aave Fork Dubbed Spark Protocol (CoinDesk)

• Chiliz launches layer-1 blockchain to expand fan token ecosystem (CoinTelegraph)

• NFTs Are Not Art: Judge Sides With Fashion Giant Hermès in MetaBirkins Case (Blockworks)

• After AWS Deal With Ava Labs, Web3 at ‘Inflection Point’ (Blockworks)

• Are Regulators Taking Aim at Crypto Staking? (Decrypt)

• Robinhood Wants to Buy Its Shares Back from Sam Bankman-Fried (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

On Tuesday we discussed the macro structure event that has occurred with BTC’s 50 day and 200 day moving average called a golden cross. However, moving averages are lagging indicators and while they can give you a good idea of where prices might be heading long term they aren’t incredibly predictive on shorter timeframes.

We also pointed out how a golden cross can be a false signal and showed some historic events where the price did in fact go down after a cross.

Today, let’s focus on a more mid to near term timeframe for where BTC could be headed next.

BTC made the high for 2023 on February 2nd, just before the FOMC meeting. Since, then it has been selling off, though with high intraday volatility. It has made a V top and nothing is to say it hasn’t found support around these levels and will continue up from here. However, the current place BTC is finding support is the September 13th 2022 local top before high inflation numbers were printed.

The point is bull have a point to prove here. There are many positions in profit from Jan 1st that are likely taking profit here and certainly will be motivated to take profits if the price continues to decline.

The next key support on the chart is at $21500, the local top just before the FTX news broke. If the bulls don’t show up there then it’s a long trip back to $17500 the June 18 2022 low we’ve talked about so much in this newsletter. This level has become the neckline of the January breakout from the W bottom that formed.

Holding the FTX local top as support would be a nice setup for a continued 2023 rally that would not violate the golden cross that points to a continued rally in the first half of the year.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC can find support at one of these three key levels.

Possible Course of Action

• Potential support for BTC at $22500, $21500, $17500, these could be good places for longs once support has been retested and price bounces

• Short into rallies expecting retests of these key supports (don’t short support probably!)

• If long from below $17500, hold, consider taking profits (stop loss) if any of these supports fail

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Golden Cross

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Feb 2 high before Fed meeting

• Currently testing key support, if it breaks expecting $1000 down move

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal checks in on MATIC and its relative performances to BTC.